A decline in February's commerce activity offset the modest gains posted in January, according to a new index that suggests economic activity could contract toward the end of the first quarter. But geographic breakdowns indicate the downturn could have been caused by extreme winter weather.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index by UCLA Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles fell by 0.7 percent in February after a 0.6 percent increase in January. This decline follows a 2.8 percent gain in December.
"February was disappointing, but the geographic pattern underlying the index suggests this was due in large part to extreme snowfalls during the month," said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and chief economist for the index.
For example, the Pacific region, which was not affected by heavy snowfall, recorded an increase of 2.1 percent in the Pulse of Commerce Index.
"Goods have to be transported for the economy to grow, so when snowstorms bog down that flow it is reflected in our index and in the overall U.S. economy," said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index analyst for Ceridian.
Industrial production is forecast to grow at a 0.6 percent rate, falling from the 1 percent anticipated in February.
The Ceridian-UCLA index is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption from road trucking tracked by Ceridian Corp.
© 2010 Daily Journal Corporation. All rights reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment